No one can predict the real estate market with certainty from year to year. As the first half of 2026 comes to a close, we have navigated the war in Iran, high gas prices, elevated inflation, rising mortgage rates and a stock market at record highs. In this column, I will review the current state of the local real estate market.
Cyclical behavior is a recurring feature of economic and social systems. Expansion and contraction can be observed in business activity, financial markets and asset prices, as well as in more familiar seasonal patterns. These fluctuations are typically shaped by a combination of macroeconomic forces, including interest rates, inflation, credit conditions and shifts in business confidence.
The upcoming June 2026 election in San Francisco’s District 4 is shaping up to be a definitive referendum on the neighborhood’s identity. Centered in the Sunset District, this race, along with a quartet of ballot propositions, carries significant implications for the City’s political trajectory and impacts the local real estate market, to a certain degree.
As of late March 2026, the escalation of the conflict with Iran has fundamentally altered the trajectory of the San Francisco real estate market. What was poised to be a robust “spring recovery” fueled by sub-6% mortgage rates has instead transitioned into a period of geopolitical volatility, with mortgage rates surging to the 6.25% range in response to rising oil prices and inflation fears.
With the arrival of 2026, buyers and sellers are preparing for the upcoming spring real estate market. Unlike previous years, an atmosphere of renewed optimism is evident.
Cycles are present in various aspects of life, with some spanning long periods while others are shorter. These cycles frequently repeat themselves, as observed in phenomena such as the four seasons or economic fluctuations between expansion and recession.
The median price for single-family homes in the Sunset District increased by 6.1% in 2025, while the number of sales rose by 2.3%. Despite three quarter-point reductions in the Federal Funds rate by the Federal Reserve, prices remained stable throughout the year.
The median price for single-family homes in the Richmond District increased by 8.1% in 2025, while the number of sales dropped by 8.9%. Despite three quarter-point reductions in the Federal Funds rate by the Federal Reserve, prices remained relatively stable throughout the year. The accompanying Richmond Home Sales Comparison table provides a quarterly breakdown of results in 2025 relative to prior years.
As 2025 draws to a close, the real estate market has experienced yet another interesting year. The recurring question at this time is: Where is the market headed next?
What decides a home’s value? Why do two nearly identical homes in two close-by towns have a $300,000 difference in their selling prices? Why did the house across the street linger on the market with price reductions while the one on the next block sold in three days over the asking price?
Addressing complex problems often results in unintended consequences. Legislators frequently confront such outcomes when enacting comprehensive laws and ordinances.
With a lifelong background in real estate, I have a particular interest in the evolving dynamics of the 2025 market, especially as we navigate through this transitional period. Traditionally, my September commentary focuses on projections for the fall real estate market, which ushers in San Francisco’s second peak selling season.
A prominent current topic is the proposed upzoning plan. San Francisco faces a mandate to construct 82,000 new housing units by 2030, with a substantial allocation designated as affordable.
As the first half of 2025 concludes, we have faced several unique challenges including the impact of President Donald Trump’s policies – tariffs, inflation rumors, civil unrest and international warfare. In this column, we assess the current state of the local real estate market.
Lately I have read several articles regarding the financials of buying versus renting a home.
