Upcoming Election Impact

The upcoming June 2026 election in San Francisco’s District 4 is shaping up to be a definitive referendum on the neighborhood’s identity. Centered in the Sunset District, this race, along with a quartet of ballot propositions, carries significant implications for the City’s political trajectory and impacts the local real estate market, to a certain degree.

The Sunset District 4 seat is up for a special election following the recall of former Supervisor Joel Engardio. The central flash point of that recall – the permanent closure of the Upper Great Highway to cars (Proposition K) – continues to cast a long shadow over the current race. While the measure passed citywide, it was deeply unpopular in the Sunset and the Richmond Districts, leading to a political vacuum now being contested by five primary candidates.

In my opinion, the three front runners are:

Albert Chow

The long-time owner of Great Wall Hardware and a leader in the Engardio recall, Chow represents the neighborhood’s merchant and homeowner backbone. His candidacy is built on a “neighborhood first” philosophy, prioritizing small business survival and local control over transit and infrastructure.

Natalie Gee

A legislative aide to progressive Supervisor Shamann Walton, Gee is the primary challenger from the left. She focuses on workforce housing and ensuring the wealthy pay their fair share to fund public services like Muni. She has staunch support among the unions and progressive groups.

Alan Wong

Appointed by SF Mayor Daniel Lurie, Wong is running as a pragmatic moderate. A lifelong Sunset resident and National Guard commander, his platform emphasizes public safety, staffing the police department and family zoning. He aims to streamline housing permits for starter homes while opposing massive, out-of-scale developments that could alter the neighborhood’s character.

D-4 Supe Endorsement

From my viewpoint, Gee is too progressive for D-4. Chow and Wong are the best choices for this district. Remember that this race is dependent on ranked choice voting, meaning you can vote for more than one candidate and have the ability to rank them as you see fit. My vote is for Chow and then Wong in that order.

While the supervisor race determines the district’s voice, the citywide propositions will dictate the financial and regulatory environment for San Francisco and affects property owners and tenants.

Proposition A

The infrastructure bond: This is a $535 million General Obligation Bond aimed at earthquake safety and emergency response. This needs approval by two-thirds of the voters to pass.

Real Estate Impact: If passed, the bond will be funded through property taxes. Specifically, it is estimated to cost $7.45 per $100,000 of assessed value. Property owners are permitted to pass through 50% of the property tax increase resulting from this new bond to tenants. This could lead to a slight uptick in housing costs but is argued to protect the long-term value and safety of the city’s building stock.

Though the funds are going toward a good purpose, I am voting “no” on Prop. A, because we have approved similar bonds in the past but really have not seen results. Then, the City always comes back asking for more money.

Proposition B

Lifetime Term Limits: Prop. B seeks to tighten the existing rules for the mayor and Board of Supervisors, moving from a two consecutive terms limit to a strict lifetime limit of two terms.

Real Estate Impact: There is minimal real estate impact regarding this proposition. This was the intent when the law was originally passed, so I am voting “yes” on Prop. B.

Propositions C and D

The Business Tax Duel: These two measures are competing visions for how San Francisco should tax its entities.

Proposition C: Aims to exempt small businesses (those with up to $7.5 million in gross receipts) from certain taxes, while accelerating tax hikes on companies with high executive-to-worker pay ratios.

Proposition D: A more aggressive “overpaid executive tax” hike, seeks to increase rates significantly to fill budget deficits and fund public services.

Real Estate Impact: Both measures indirectly affect the real estate market. If Proposition D creates a punitive environment for tech and other companies, it could exacerbate the City’s office vacancy crisis, further depressing commercial property values and office rents, leading to companies and people moving away from this area, thus lowering real estate prices. Conversely, the small business exemptions in Prop. C are seen as a lifeline for neighborhood retail corridors like those on Geary Boulevard and Irving, Noriega, Taraval, Clement and Balboa streets. It can help boost businesses in our recovery.

I am voting “yes” on Prop. C and “no” on Prop. D to help small businesses and keeping more businesses and people in San Francisco.

However you decide on these candidates and propositions though, I urge you to vote on June 2. Ballots will be mailed out at the beginning of May.

John M. Lee is a top selling broker with the JODI Group. For real estate questions, contact John at 415-465-0505 or johnlee@isellsf.com.